Genre Sales 2: Science Fiction (Part 6 of 8)

In the not-too-distant future, an intrepid young sales commander voyages into the unknown realms of... GENRE WARS BREAKDOWNS

Yes, science fiction, mes auteurs. Whether it's gritty military sci-fi, space opera, futuristic cyber punkdom/crimery (I'm being a little inventive with the jargon here), or something a little loonier (think The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy), science fiction asks The Big Questions™ in the politically distanced, freer, and generally, more technologically advanced arena of the future (or occasionally a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away). Fantastic things happen, dear readers, but unlike in fantasy, they're things that could maybe happen someday! It's no magic, all science, all the time.

Keeping all the usual caveats in mind, it seems to me (again, based on the data available to me and anecdotal evidence from the folks selling these titles) that science fiction is either flat or a little down compared to 2009. As usual, I have a couple of theories as to why.

The genre has been pretty quiet this year and last. Without any phenomenally huge blow-out titles, the sales numbers probably more or less accurately reflect the general state of midlist fiction in this country, which (sadly) appears to be down year-on-year.

Americans apparently find science, fictional or not, scary. Back when we were trying to build colossal ocean liners or kill Nazis or beat the Russians or conquer space, science was cool and science fiction served as a method of exploring humanity's potential. I can't help but wonder whether our current dismal attitude toward science (made no better by our overly administrative, under-funded, and overwhelmingly lukewarm space program) has contributed to the decline of the genre since the Golden Age of Science Fiction (which ended in the late '50s) and the later New Wave Science Fiction ('60s, '70s, and first couple years of the '80s).

Maybe the Large Hadron Collider will help. Dr. Higgs and the Boson of Doom, anyone?

A lot of the cool science fiction crossovers are getting poached by other genres. I can't tell you how many times I created a kit for what I thought was a sci-fi title, only to discover it was being sold in as (futuristic) romance. Or fantasy (fantasy, as we have seen, sells). Or mystery/thriller (something like Minority Report could very well be sold today to the thriller buyer at a book store). With less and less hardcore science fiction available and, apparently, a smaller market for it, it's no surprise the numbers are going down.

The bright spot is, mes auteurs, that writers and readers of science fiction were the first to adopt the e-book (in the late '90s, before it was cool), and thus Our Coming Electronic Overlords may be the best thing to happen to science fiction since Asimov. For the time being, anyway—e-books are already surprisingly mainstream, and once they reach parity with physical books in the market, I don't think the genre will retain much of an edge.

So in that time-honored format that has, in fact, returned from the distant future to save all bulletkind:

• Sci-fi sales seem to be down. Frak.

• This is probably due to Americans not being super amped about science. Now that I think of it, it's also possible—though to a lesser extent—that some of it is due to women making up the majority of book buyers, while making up a minority of sci-fi readers.

• E-book sales are, I think, good for now and potentially still on the up-and-up, but I expect this to level out over time.

That's all for today, Borg and Klingons. Next up: Women's fiction! Tomorrow!

O Dear: Odyssey Editions

In an interesting move, Andrew Wylie has made a deal with the d... uh, Amazon to exclusively publish 20 of his titles as part of a new e-venture dubbed Odyssey Editions. Needless to say, the publishing world will not be pleased.

There's probably very little love lost on Andrew Wylie in the industry as it is. The man's a genius and tremendously well-respected, but he's unafraid to play hardball and his brashness is legendary (he apparently would have graduated summa cum laude from Harvard had he not belittled his own advisor in his thesis). Insiders are predisposed to regard Wylie's decisions warily (or sometimes with a mix of paranoia and disdain), so I imagine there's going to be quite a buzz over "the Amazon Affair" over the next few days and weeks.

That said: I wholeheartedly applaud the creation of an electronically native imprint, and I do think it's the way of the future. What concerns me (and probably everyone else besides Amazon), however, is the exclusive deal that 1.) renders the title only available for sale through Amazon, and 2.) circumvents the publishing house entirely.

While proprietary editions of titles have been around for decades, it's another thing entirely to sell a title exclusively to one vendor (especially a vendor well-known for its severe and relentless downward pressure on book pricing) without even offering it elsewhere. It's decidedly Wal*Mart-esque and I don't think it bodes well for the market, regardless of how many BlackBerry or iPad or Android devices are bought and used to consume Kindle material.

Is this the way of the future? Potentially. I do think publishing houses are going to get a lot smaller and may, in fact, merge with agencies into a Wylie-type model (acquisition, editing, art, and formatting being done by one agency/house, with a small marketing, publicity, and sales staff to handle sales to vendors). But as long as physical books are still being produced, current printing, warehousing, and shipping infrastructures used and maintained by publishing houses will ensure the houses' continued existence.

Now, does my job depend on my not understanding Wylie's cut-out-the-middle-man tactics? In a sense, yes. Am I an idiot? No. Sure, there are some people in this industry so entrenched in the way things are that they'll end up losing sales and going out of business as the industry moves on without them. But those of us that embrace digital sales and are good at projecting and securing them will have a place in the industry five, ten, or even twenty years from now. And so, dear authors, will you.

The Year in Review: Part 5

The! World! of! Tomorrow!

Once again exhibiting his uncanny ability to read my mind (or simply read the same news sources), Nathan posted yesterday about Mike Shatzkin's post on the future of book stores. I largely agree with Shatzkin (his original article can be found here), and Nathan's assessment (though bleak) is pretty spot-on. To quote:

These last few years have been incredibly tumultuous for the industry. The recession and the Great Digital Transition combined forces to wallop the industry, and the effects are everywhere: shrinking lists, closing imprints, shuttering indie stores, a vanishing mid-list, and belt-tightening across the board.

However, whereas Shatzkin seems to have relatively little hope that publishers will be able to adapt to the massive transformation entailed by the "Great Digital Transition," I think Nathan and I are in the same, slightly more optimistic boat. People will still buy (possibly even more) books. The paper side won't disappear completely. A lot of things (writers writing, agents agenting, editors editing) will remain the same.

Thus, in the one, the only, Bullet-o-Vision™:

· In my opinion, e-books will comprise 50% of the market by 2015. I wouldn't be surprised if it were more (up to 70%).

· In my experience, e-book consumers are never "between books"; that is, unlike with physical books, they don't finish a book and take any sort of break. Even if they take a month to read the next one, they generally start it as soon as the previous book is finished. I think this behavior, along with the lower cost and greater convenience of e-books, is behind the booming sales numbers we're seeing.

· As the cost of e-readers decreases (read: falls to around the $100 mark across the board), e-book sales will sharply increase.

· The vast majority of e-book readers also buy physical books (and more of those who are "physical books only" are making the transition every day), so I think publishers would be wise to bundle the two products together at a discounted rate, at least for now.

· I don't think the transition to e-books will democratize publishing any more than Gutenberg's press did 560 years ago.


What do you think, mes auteurs?

On the Importance of Storytelling

***CAUTION: LOST SPOILERS AHEAD***

If you haven't yet seen the lost series finale, I suggest you put off reading the below post until you do. Anything after the break may contain significant spoilers.




















Yes. lost.

Say what you will about the series finale—who died*, who lived, what was wrapped up, what was never addressed**, what questions were answered, sort of answered, left unanswered, &c—one of the major strengths behind the show is the establishment of an interesting, consistent mythology that is slowly revealed (I hesitate to say "explained") to viewers via effective storytelling.

When writing a short story, novel, screenplay, or television show, it's not enough to have interesting characters and a cool plot; you have to be able to advance the story and explore the psychologies and depths of the characters in an engaging way. Simply put: it's not enough to have a great story, but you need to tell that story well, too. The what is necessary, but the how is absolutely essential. It's character development, it's maintaining the relationship (often tension) between what the characters know versus what the reader/viewer knows (dramatic irony, anyone?), it's controlling pacing, it's telling your story in the best order, &c &c. If lost had been told from the point of view of the smoke monster (what the hell is his name, anyway?) from the very beginning, or if the show had unfolded in strict chronological order (starting with Jacob's birth and ending with the series finale), the show wouldn't have been nearly as effective as it was.

Granted, there were some pretty big questions that were left partially or wholly unresolved, and I don't necessarily recommend that M.O. when writing your novels—readers like loose ends tied up, even if it's not perfect. I also tend to think readers don't really like abstract church-afterlives vaguely reminiscent of the Restaurant at the End of the Universe, either, so I'd also avoid that tack if possible. To each his/her own.

As for the ending of lost in particular: I think it was interesting and competent, but not totally mind-blowing. I didn't like that major questions weren't answered (e.g. what the island actually is, the fates of certain seemingly extraneous characters, the source of Eloise Hawking's apparent extra-temporal awareness, and so on), but I suppose those weren't really "the point." I'm not sure I could really tell you what "the point" was. I did, however, think the bookending of the eye opening/eye closing image, while predictable, was nice, and while I wasn't really a fan of Christian being there (though I suppose, being dead, he did belong), I did like the "reunion" feel of the church scene. It may grow on me as time goes on.

What do/did you think, fair readers?


[Edit: speaking of you, fair readers: there are now 1,000 of you following PMN! Thanks to everyone for reading, commenting, and following!]


* Everyone? I think?
** Walt?

Genrification

It's been awhile since I've run a poll, and since 1.) I've noticed several new followers as of late, and 2.) I'm gearing up for another round of genre-specific sales smackdowns, I figured I'd offer you, gentle readers, the following poll:



Have at it!

Battle for the Future of E-Books

Since e-books came up in yesterday's comments and I have yet to talk about our upcoming E-lysium/new e-reading devices this year, I figured I'd take a moment to tell you what I really think the future is: this.

Now, before I accidentally incite a PC/Mac war, let me be clear: I'm not necessarily putting my money on Apple as the leader of the New World Order (Microsoft will be a contender, along with the canonical trifecta of Amazon, Google, and Walmart). What I am saying is this: as much as we hear about eyestrain and the doom associated with backlit screens, this is not a dealbreaker for all of us, and further, I'm fairly certain the all-in-one package will soon beat out the dedicated device.

Imagine it: a Mac or PC tablet that integrates full-color books into the existing super-device that is the smartphone (Internet browsing, calling, texting, app...ing, you name it). My bet is that this model will be far more popular than a black-and-white device like the Kindle that only serves one purpose. Sure, Apple (or whoever becomes the Tablet King) will have to overcome obstacles like existing market/mindshare, infrastructure, DRM, &c, but they're a smart bunch. As a result, I don't think Amazon will be quite as monolithic in the e-book industry in five years as they are now.

That said, I'm still interested in the new e-ink models coming out this spring. Sure, you can't watch a video on them or use them to look up that obscure literary reference you just read, but some of them (such as the Skiff and the Que) look pretty sweet. I don't think they'll last in the long run, but I think they're a key part of the ongoing print-to-digital (r)evolution (analogous to Zip disks, laserdiscs, HD DVDs, and so on).

Basically, it comes down to this: I think the Kindle and other dedicated e-readers are necessary to the future of publishing, but they are not going to be carrying the torch for very long; e-books will outlive these types of e-readers by a significant margin.

Next up: dozens of angry commenters who got or gave Kindles for Christmas thronging the comments section! Details at 11:00!

In the Year 2029

Full disclosure, mes amis: this post on THE FUTURE OF PUBLISHING (patent pending) is pure speculation on my part. Informed speculation, to be sure, but speculation nonetheless. So, now that you've taken your mandatory grains of salt, come with me on a journey to...

THE YEAR 2029

In the year 2029, the power of wireless Internet, Amazon, and Google (among newer and even more fantastic companies and services) will have taken connectivity to a new level. We could have search engines in our contact lenses, people! True, video or Matrix-style virtual reality may have largely replaced today's text-based Internet by then, but I'm betting there will still be text involved, and therefore (drumroll, please): reading!

Google's and Amazon's Sith-level grips on electronic books may well still be holding (fun activity: which is the master and which is the apprentice?), meaning that between them, a huge and continuously growing volume of e-books will be available on-line. Mix that with paper-thin, flexible, full-color e-readers (or those mega sweet contact lenses I just mentioned) and you've got almost any book you could ever hope to read wirelessly available almost instantly.

Will piracy be a problem? Absolutely—in twenty years, I expect the publishing industry to be suffering the same issues as the music industry in terms of illegal downloads and pirated materials. Ninja DRM and lawsuits from publishers/copyright holders/author estates will hopefully be enough to deter some pirates, but certainly not all.

Now, as we have seen, there are always going to be early adopters, late adopters, and non-adopters of new technologies, meaning that there will probably still be folks reading paper books in the far-flung year of 2029. I'm pretty sure that's going to be those of us who are college-age or older now, since we have a significant attachment to print books. But those three-year-olds you see running around now? They'll be fresh college graduates with almost no knowledge of The World Before E-Books. They saw us using e-readers when they were tots and thought they were cool. They probably got their own e-readers in middle school. Heck, they might not have ever even touched a physical book in all four years of college. Sure, a few young fogeys might think "p-books" are cool and retro or whatever, but most will view them as archaic and hard to use. (There's no search function on a paperback.)

I think hardcover books will swiftly become novelties, so only a few very small publishers will continue to produce them. For those of us who actually want to read physical books, POD will likely have become the norm, since dwindling demand will long since have forced houses and booksellers to abandon the current mega-print-run-and-returns model. If you want a physical book, you order it, it gets printed just for you, and that's that.

The good news for publishers and agents: I still think we'll need you in the astoundingly distant year of 2029! Roles will have changed drastically, though. Agents will be needed to negotiate royalties & contracts, filter out the detritus, and scout out the self-published stuff that's actually good; publishers will be needed to provide editing, marketing, and publicity services (viral media blitzes and e-co-op, if you will). The industry will be generally more compact, but will still exist and, hopefully, be thriving.

Oh, and I almost forgot the best part: in 2029, all you author folk will be making six-figure advances! Hooray for inflation!

Little Round Up of Horrors

Another Friday, another round up, another chance to hang out with yours truly (...it's Laura. You know. Laura? Who writes the round ups? The one who isn't Eric). So round up below (cue sweet tunes):

Ah, late September, a time when love is in the air. All the more reason that Elizabeth's first literary crush really tugged the heart strings--a teen girl in love with a gay octogenarian WWI poet is most likely doomed to failure, but she persevered nonetheless. So Elizabeth, salve your broken heart with the knowledge that you've won last week's contest (and new contest below!), and call Kristi for your free therapy (yes, blog comments are contractually binding. I know this because I watch a lot of Law & Order).

These kinds of broken hearts happen in the quest for great literature, it seems. The answer? Don't read great literature. Read John Grisham instead! He doesn't write literature, he says, and he fully supports Dan Brown's quest to also not write literature. They will probably start a Get Rid of Smelly writerS club, in which they buy first editions of Stephen King and light cigars with burning Gutenberg Bibles. I would join their club but, alas, I only write fine round up literature, and we all know anything good tends to get rejected. Some poorly written money makers also get rejected--which editors will only admit to anonymously. Agents, on the other hand, are wily rascals who we love for their lies, because their honesty is overrated.

I think the answer is to sell out (at least sell something) and get stuffed animals of your characters, CDs packaged with your books, and fans who bring guns from your historical fiction to your readings. Who needs MacArthur grants and to be one of a few great writers invited to read torture memos aloud? With political resonance? We can have Moby Dick written in emoticons, or be part of the Manga hall of shame, or try and revive a career as a former head of state by insinuating that you slept with Princess Di.

Or maybe you can get a ghostwriter--especially for your work in medical journals and your letters to friends (letter writing is an art, you know). Hey, it's not like there's anything new to write, no matter how many literary techniques you learn from dinosaurs (Lisa, that one's for you). Plus, small children will be better at plots than you anyway.

Well, maybe that's not true; you're probably better at plots than at least one kid. Maybe the reason no one loves you...er...your book is because it isn't a book. Maybe it's a non-fiction graphic novel for children. Maybe the detailed ethnography that is your dissertation is really a cookbook. Or maybe your book just really, really needs a subtitle.

What it doesn't need is dirty, rampant sex...ism. Not sex either, because writing about sex is awkward, but mostly not sexism. The British Fantasy Society chose not to interview a single woman on their horror panel (horrific!). While female characters are missing from sci-fi in general, actually excluding the lady-types is pretty not nice. The creator of modern horror was, in fact, a lady-type. The BFS swears it was only "lazy sexism" (as opposed to that active, gym going sexism) but others are saying the line in the sand has been drawn: horror is for men, paranormal romance is for ladies.

And the discrimination doesn't end there. Why hasn't there been a sci-fi Booker winner? Virginia Woolf liked sci-fi. I like sci-fi. Sci-fi even has some serious, real world type rules. Potentially, the sci-fi titles aren't that good. But more potentially, the Booker people aren't closet sci-fi fans. Either way, the odds can only be evened by joining a writer's club, potentially in Second Life. I mean, why not? Publishers are learning to love the web, so you should too.

Yes, the book world is changing. You know how I know? Diablo Cody is adapting the Sweet Valley High books for the big screen. Now Elizabeth and Jessica will call each other on ironic phones and wear ironic tees and oh my god they'll be terrible terrible hipsters. So my contest to you (which I think is entirely unwinnable, by the way): come up with a worse pairing of classic, beloved book or series and a modern writer. I call Jonathan Franzen's adaptation of the Babysitter's Club. Just so he will learn the value of writing characters that aren't thinly veiled versions on himself. ...Was that mean? I think that was mean. You're very talented Mr. Franzen! But there was no need to cast yourself as the hero of The Corrections!

Well, that's all from me. Submit pairings for my contest, and remember to pine for me until next Friday.

Genre-Specific Sales, Part 4 of 8: Science Fiction

From Asimov to Zelazny, science fiction has seen some of the best authors and titles in recent trade publishing history. The question is: do the sales reflect this?

Well, yes and no. Science fiction is a tricky beast, and can more or less be broken down into the sub-genres of "hard" science fiction, cyberpunk science fiction, military science fiction, fantasy science fiction, and media tie-in science fiction (although there are some that don't quite fit in, e.g. Douglas Adams' Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, which is more or less humorous sci-fi).

Hard science fiction (think Isaac Asimov, Arthur C. Clarke, Larry Niven) has been on the decline since the end of the Golden Age of Science Fiction, i.e. for about half a century at this point, so if you're writing in this area your sales will probably be modest at best. Cyberpunk, military, and fantasy are a different story, though; from what I can tell, those genres have been on the up and up in recent months. (A representative from Borders and the BookScan numbers agree.) This is especially the case for fantasy science fiction, which, in my opinion, enjoys the best of both worlds (think China Miéville's Perdido Street Station).

Now, there is some nay-saying going on, but it largely pertains to the state of the industry as a whole (hint: sales are soft), and insofar as it addresses science fiction sales, there's really no indication as to where the data are coming from, so I think it's safe to say that for now, science fiction is a modest oasis in the unrelenting desert that is book publishing. (+5 metaphor, +2 charisma, +3 constitution.)

Speaking of stats and, by association, D&D, media tie-in sci-fi/fantasy (sort of D&D, but mostly Star Trek and Star Wars) continues to do well. If you're one of the lucky few who's writing those official Lucas Books Star Wars tie-in novels, your sales are secure. But you already knew that.

Finally, what kind of advance can a sci-fi author expect these days?

Once again, it's Tobias Buckell to the rescue. According to him, you can expect a median advance of $5,000, an average of $7,000, and a range of $0 - $20,000. Once again, you'll notice the agented submissions do significantly better than the unagented ones. Agents, people. You need them.

So, in summary:

· Overall sales are still down, but science fiction sales are slightly up!
· Hard science fiction will be a hard sell for you, but everything else should be more or less okay. Your best bet is fantasy/sci fi, I think. (See all previous caveats concerning my advice.)
· According to our man Tobias, you can expect a median advance of $5,000, an average of $7,000, and a range of $0 - $20,000.

To my spaceship, and away!