In the Year 2029

Full disclosure, mes amis: this post on THE FUTURE OF PUBLISHING (patent pending) is pure speculation on my part. Informed speculation, to be sure, but speculation nonetheless. So, now that you've taken your mandatory grains of salt, come with me on a journey to...

THE YEAR 2029

In the year 2029, the power of wireless Internet, Amazon, and Google (among newer and even more fantastic companies and services) will have taken connectivity to a new level. We could have search engines in our contact lenses, people! True, video or Matrix-style virtual reality may have largely replaced today's text-based Internet by then, but I'm betting there will still be text involved, and therefore (drumroll, please): reading!

Google's and Amazon's Sith-level grips on electronic books may well still be holding (fun activity: which is the master and which is the apprentice?), meaning that between them, a huge and continuously growing volume of e-books will be available on-line. Mix that with paper-thin, flexible, full-color e-readers (or those mega sweet contact lenses I just mentioned) and you've got almost any book you could ever hope to read wirelessly available almost instantly.

Will piracy be a problem? Absolutely—in twenty years, I expect the publishing industry to be suffering the same issues as the music industry in terms of illegal downloads and pirated materials. Ninja DRM and lawsuits from publishers/copyright holders/author estates will hopefully be enough to deter some pirates, but certainly not all.

Now, as we have seen, there are always going to be early adopters, late adopters, and non-adopters of new technologies, meaning that there will probably still be folks reading paper books in the far-flung year of 2029. I'm pretty sure that's going to be those of us who are college-age or older now, since we have a significant attachment to print books. But those three-year-olds you see running around now? They'll be fresh college graduates with almost no knowledge of The World Before E-Books. They saw us using e-readers when they were tots and thought they were cool. They probably got their own e-readers in middle school. Heck, they might not have ever even touched a physical book in all four years of college. Sure, a few young fogeys might think "p-books" are cool and retro or whatever, but most will view them as archaic and hard to use. (There's no search function on a paperback.)

I think hardcover books will swiftly become novelties, so only a few very small publishers will continue to produce them. For those of us who actually want to read physical books, POD will likely have become the norm, since dwindling demand will long since have forced houses and booksellers to abandon the current mega-print-run-and-returns model. If you want a physical book, you order it, it gets printed just for you, and that's that.

The good news for publishers and agents: I still think we'll need you in the astoundingly distant year of 2029! Roles will have changed drastically, though. Agents will be needed to negotiate royalties & contracts, filter out the detritus, and scout out the self-published stuff that's actually good; publishers will be needed to provide editing, marketing, and publicity services (viral media blitzes and e-co-op, if you will). The industry will be generally more compact, but will still exist and, hopefully, be thriving.

Oh, and I almost forgot the best part: in 2029, all you author folk will be making six-figure advances! Hooray for inflation!

Never Give Up! Never Surrender!

...unless your book is terrible and you're a hack. (I kid.)

Seriously, though, I couldn't help but notice in the epic comments section of yesterday's post that a number of you are either relatively young, relatively new to this whole novel-writing business (i.e. are still hard at work on your first manuscript), or both. Well, good news: this is the part where I bust out my grandpa glasses and learn you a thing or two about writing stories.

Anecdote #1: When I was in sunny COLLEGE, USA this weekend, I ran into several visiting alumni. Many of them were in their thirties or forties and were generally more than happy to talk about what they did for a living, what school/work/life was like back in their day, and so forth. Of these gentle folk, one (in his late 30s) told me he's still not sure what he wants to be when he grows up, having had jobs in at least four different (and very diverse) fields since graduation. I told him I worked in publishing, and replied that maybe he'd give novel writing a go. And you know what? I hope he does. He could be at the very beginning of a great writing career.

So, if you're 25 and you've shopped a novel or two and it hasn't worked out yet, it may not necessarily be time to throw in the towel. Not everyone is Jonathan Safran Foer; chances are, you've got plenty of time.

Anecdote #2: This one is apocryphal, but the story goes something like this: a doctor and a novelist meet at one of those parties where you stand around with cocktails and talk about what you do for a living (perhaps a college reunion). When the doctor hears that the novelist writes for a living, he says, "I'd love to be a novelist, if only I had the time." The novelist then takes a characteristically long sip of his drink before responding, "Yes, and I'd love to be a doctor, if only I had the time."

Long story short (Eric said, removing his grandpa glasses): writing is hard. It takes time, talent, time, knowledge, luck, time, and luck (as well as a thousand other factors, like time and luck). It's not all going to magically come together overnight, but if you work hard at it and you've got the skill, chances are you'll see results. Maybe not when you're 20, 30, 40, or even 50, but you won't see anything if you give up now. I mean, come on—if I'd given up on this post at 10:00, you'd have nothing to read. But—o frabjous day!—I kept at it until 10:10, and now look! Results. You can't fake this kind of success, kids.

Tomorrow: more on THE FUTURE OF PUBLISHING!

Prithee, Inform Me: How Far Along Are You?

Greetings, lords and ladies, from sunny COLLEGE, USA! I decided to pay a visit to my dear alma mater for some general broings-on and good times this weekend, so that's the reason for the shorter-than-usual post—but please accept my promise of extra content this coming week to make up for it.

So, prithee, inform me: where are you in the publication process? Do you have a finished novel? Are you agented but unpublished? Have you already penned fourteen bestsellers?

The thing is, the sales aspect of book publishing is (I hope) interesting to you, but I want to make sure PMN's content is as helpful to those of you who aren't yet published as those of you who have been through the gauntlet of the Great Publishing Rube Goldberg Machine and are now wondering about everything from cover art to comp titles.

So, if you don't mind: to the comments, and let me know where you are on your fantastic voyage!

Little Round Up of Horrors

Another Friday, another round up, another chance to hang out with yours truly (...it's Laura. You know. Laura? Who writes the round ups? The one who isn't Eric). So round up below (cue sweet tunes):

Ah, late September, a time when love is in the air. All the more reason that Elizabeth's first literary crush really tugged the heart strings--a teen girl in love with a gay octogenarian WWI poet is most likely doomed to failure, but she persevered nonetheless. So Elizabeth, salve your broken heart with the knowledge that you've won last week's contest (and new contest below!), and call Kristi for your free therapy (yes, blog comments are contractually binding. I know this because I watch a lot of Law & Order).

These kinds of broken hearts happen in the quest for great literature, it seems. The answer? Don't read great literature. Read John Grisham instead! He doesn't write literature, he says, and he fully supports Dan Brown's quest to also not write literature. They will probably start a Get Rid of Smelly writerS club, in which they buy first editions of Stephen King and light cigars with burning Gutenberg Bibles. I would join their club but, alas, I only write fine round up literature, and we all know anything good tends to get rejected. Some poorly written money makers also get rejected--which editors will only admit to anonymously. Agents, on the other hand, are wily rascals who we love for their lies, because their honesty is overrated.

I think the answer is to sell out (at least sell something) and get stuffed animals of your characters, CDs packaged with your books, and fans who bring guns from your historical fiction to your readings. Who needs MacArthur grants and to be one of a few great writers invited to read torture memos aloud? With political resonance? We can have Moby Dick written in emoticons, or be part of the Manga hall of shame, or try and revive a career as a former head of state by insinuating that you slept with Princess Di.

Or maybe you can get a ghostwriter--especially for your work in medical journals and your letters to friends (letter writing is an art, you know). Hey, it's not like there's anything new to write, no matter how many literary techniques you learn from dinosaurs (Lisa, that one's for you). Plus, small children will be better at plots than you anyway.

Well, maybe that's not true; you're probably better at plots than at least one kid. Maybe the reason no one loves you...er...your book is because it isn't a book. Maybe it's a non-fiction graphic novel for children. Maybe the detailed ethnography that is your dissertation is really a cookbook. Or maybe your book just really, really needs a subtitle.

What it doesn't need is dirty, rampant sex...ism. Not sex either, because writing about sex is awkward, but mostly not sexism. The British Fantasy Society chose not to interview a single woman on their horror panel (horrific!). While female characters are missing from sci-fi in general, actually excluding the lady-types is pretty not nice. The creator of modern horror was, in fact, a lady-type. The BFS swears it was only "lazy sexism" (as opposed to that active, gym going sexism) but others are saying the line in the sand has been drawn: horror is for men, paranormal romance is for ladies.

And the discrimination doesn't end there. Why hasn't there been a sci-fi Booker winner? Virginia Woolf liked sci-fi. I like sci-fi. Sci-fi even has some serious, real world type rules. Potentially, the sci-fi titles aren't that good. But more potentially, the Booker people aren't closet sci-fi fans. Either way, the odds can only be evened by joining a writer's club, potentially in Second Life. I mean, why not? Publishers are learning to love the web, so you should too.

Yes, the book world is changing. You know how I know? Diablo Cody is adapting the Sweet Valley High books for the big screen. Now Elizabeth and Jessica will call each other on ironic phones and wear ironic tees and oh my god they'll be terrible terrible hipsters. So my contest to you (which I think is entirely unwinnable, by the way): come up with a worse pairing of classic, beloved book or series and a modern writer. I call Jonathan Franzen's adaptation of the Babysitter's Club. Just so he will learn the value of writing characters that aren't thinly veiled versions on himself. ...Was that mean? I think that was mean. You're very talented Mr. Franzen! But there was no need to cast yourself as the hero of The Corrections!

Well, that's all from me. Submit pairings for my contest, and remember to pine for me until next Friday.

¡Happy Punctuation Day!

That's right folks, today is officially Punctuation Day. So corral your commas, saddle up your semicolons, and let's hit the dusty Publishing Trail. (If you're wondering about the cowboy theme, it was also recently Louis L'Amour Day.) Today's topic: the importance of good writing.

True, our dear friend The Rejectionist has a point: no matter how heartbreakingly beautiful your prose, you're not going to sell a book if nothing actually happens in it. And, to be brutally honest, you can probably sell a copy or two with a great idea, great pacing, and relatively average writing. However, you cannot, cannot, cannot make errors in spelling, grammar, or punctuation and assume they'll all be caught by editorial before your book goes to print. You can't be stylistically boring. In fact, you can't just be good. You can't even be great. You need to be as perfect as humanly possible.

Here's why: every week in this country, tens of thousands of books are published. Said published books are only a fraction of the books that are accepted by agents and shopped to publishers, which are in turn only a fraction of all the books written and submitted by you, the unpublished. (Much like Editorial Anonymous, I am not a fan of the phrase "pre-published." Litotes, people!)

The point is, there are hundreds of thousands—if not millions—of people competing with you for book deals. Since (sadly) most of you won't get one, you need every advantage possible if you want even a prayer of seeing your work on a book store shelf someday. Now, it might be enough to have a solid plot, great pacing, good voice, strong characters. You might be able to get away with average writing/spelling/grammar if you've got a stellar agent and editor on your hands. Then again, maybe not. Why leave anything to chance?

In short: make sure you dodecatuple-check your MS, get all your !s, ?s, ""s, ;s, and —s squared away, and only send agents the absolute best piece of work you are capable of creating. They're going all out for you. You need to go all out for you, too.

The Importance of Face Time

Every month or so, my bosses leave the office and journey to the corporate offices of their accounts to sell our books. Sometimes they'll sell over the phone if there are drop-ins, but this is considered a last resort. All sales calls are done in person whenever possible. Bottom line.

When selling your book—which is your primary job after writing said book—you should keep this in mind. If you've got legitimate contacts (read: people you actually know, and not famous authors you met at that party that one time) in the industry, make use of them. Meet for dinner/drinks. (Commandment #7: Thou shalt pimp thyself.) This goes for other authors, agents, publishing folk, book store staff, you name it. You're going to want to do local author events once your book drops, and there's no better way of greasing the wheels for that than by getting to know the staffs of your local stores (chains and indies) ahead of time.

Now, some of you might not exactly be social butterflies and may well say to me, "but Eric, I'm a writer—let me write and leave the schmoozing to the professionals!" And yes, if you are super painfully shy and honestly believe you will do more damage by trying to work these connections yourself, you might want to consider letting publicity handle all of this. But I have a feeling most of you don't fall into this category, so I say to you: soldier on. You wrote a great book. Now sell that book!

To quote Daniel Menaker: "And you have to understand that even though you are formally separated from the literal sales force, you are still above all fundamentally 'in sales.'" True, here he's talking about editors and the editorial team, but it's just as true for authors. Yes, you're on the writing "team." But you're also on the sales team.

Speaking of Our Benevolent Overlords

Hot on the tail of our discussion of Oprah yesterday—which confirmed my theory that, just as you are not largely controlled by Dan Brown, neither are you totally swayed by the powers of Oprah Winfrey—is the news that the DOJ has rejected Google's book deal.

For those of you just tuning in, some background may be in order. You can find a good rundown here and a timeline here, but I'll provide it in trademark Bullet-O-Vision™ for the link-averse:

• December 2004: Google conceives the Google Print Library Project, the precursor to today's Google Book Search.
• September/October 2005: the Authors Guild of America and Association of American Publishers independently sue Google, citing copyright infringement. Google objects, citing fair use.
• August 2006 - July 2007: Over the course of a year, a bunch of university libraries announce they'll be partnering with Google in the Book Search venture.
• March 2007: Microsoft jumps on board the litigation bandwagon. This isn't surprising, since Google and Microsoft are rivals (Chrome vs. IE, Google search engine vs. Bing, &c.)
• October 2008: A settlement is reached in which Google agrees to pay $125 million to remunerate all copyright holders whose rights were infringed, cover all legal fees, and create a public Book Rights Registry. Ever since, the terms have been under negotiation, with a ruling expected next month. However, as mentioned above, there's been a bit of a setback.

The main problem, at least as far as I can see, is this: Google believes they are allowed to keep full scans of any book—even those still under copyright—in their database, so long as they only permit public access to books that are already in the public domain; most copyright holders disagree, particularly publishers who are 50% legitimately worried that permitting one private company to effectively control the majority of the world's printed word is dangerous and 50% terrified of technology in general.

My take: I am 100% in favor of Google maintaining a database of public domain works, as are, I think, most people—except possibly public libraries, who may go by the wayswide if and when e-books come to power, meaning Google + Amazon = Your Reading Experience™. (In case you couldn't tell, I really love that little "™" symbol.) However, I am not in favor of Google maintaining a database and book registry for copyrighted material for the following reasons:

• Security. Book piracy isn't really a problem yet, but once e-books are commonplace and Google's got a massive (ostensibly private) database of copyrighted material all in one place, it will, I think, be very attractive to e-pirates who don't want to pay full price for electronic books.
• Accountability. Depending on the nuts and bolts of your contract, the copyright is either in your name or your publisher's, yet Google's holding onto it without your permission. But don't worry, they'll pay you if people are accessing your copyrighted material through them.
• Destruction of competition. With everything centralized and controlled by one entity, it seems to me healthy competition (e.g. from publishers, other electronic book databases, libraries, &c) could be stifled.

Then again, I'm the cautious (some say conspiracy theorist) type, so it could all be unnecessary hand-wringing. But I know if it were my copyright and my livelihood involved, I'd be damned sure no one was exploiting my work or stealing from me while citing free exchange of information.