Genre Sales 2: Mystery/Thriller (Part 4 of 8)

You knew it was coming, mes auteurs: bad news. Not colossal bad news! Not doom! I'm not dropping Mordor on your party! However, it does look like (based on sales data and a sprinkle of anecdotal evidence) that the mystery/thriller genre is flat or down in terms of sales this year.

While it doesn't look like there's a downward trend within 2010 (that is, each month doesn't appear to be getting progressively worse), sales for mystery and thriller titles do seem to be significantly down year-on-year, and this trend seems more pronounced for mysteries than thrillers (the latter category is basically flat to 2009).

Why is this? Well, as usual, I have some theories.

Mysteries and thrillers are psychologically taxing. As I mentioned yesterday, part of the reason fantasy titles (ditto romance—tune in next week!) do well during economic downturns is because they provide escapism, happy endings, &c. While mysteries and thrillers may turn out well, they tend to be darker, stressful for the reader ("suspenseful," "riveting," &c), and don't guarantee happy endings of any sort. Who wants to be terrified by a book when you can be terrified for free by your stock portfolio?

Mysteries and thrillers usually start out as expensive hardcovers. Don't get me wrong: genre fiction in general is conducive to the cheaper mass market format (see yesterday's post on fantasy), and many fantasy titles do start out as hardcovers, but it seems to me that mysteries and thrillers show up as hardcovers slightly more often. Additionally, the shorter average page count (compared to fantasy) means that reincarnated mysteries and thrillers appear to be sold slightly more often as trade papers rather than mass markets, and trade paperbacks tend to run $12 – $16 (compared to $4 – $9 for mass markets).

Two words: Dan Brown. Complete honesty: I have no idea exactly how many copies Dr. B sold of The Lost Symbol, and I can't share the proprietary BookScan information with you. Suffice it to say: when you're comparing mysteries/thrillers in 2010 to 2009—a year in which one title in said genre sold millions of copies—it's going to skew the numbers a little bit. That said, I'm certain the Dan Brown numbers do not account for the entirety of the disparity, and fairly certain they don't account for the majority of it.

Finally, if you're worried about e-books: don't be. At least, not any moreso than you already are. The standard 10% rule (i.e. 10% of all sales are electronic) for adult trade seems to be holding here.

Therefore, meine Autoren, in Noble and Most Ancient Bullet-O-Vision™:

· Mystery/thriller sales in 2010 are down compared to 2009. Womp womp.

· This is probably due to the psychologically taxing nature of the genre, the fact that mysteries and thrillers tend to début in pricey hardcovers, and the fact that 2009 was a slightly unusual (read: Dan Brown) year.

· Electronic sales for this genre are more or less in line with the rest of the market.

All questions, comments, vitriol, praise, &c in the comments section, dear readers, and when we return on Monday: Jonathan Franzen literary fiction!

Genrification

It's been awhile since I've run a poll, and since 1.) I've noticed several new followers as of late, and 2.) I'm gearing up for another round of genre-specific sales smackdowns, I figured I'd offer you, gentle readers, the following poll:



Have at it!

Genre-Specific Sales, Part 3 of 8: Mystery/Thriller

Laura here—just a reminder that there’s an awesome contest still going strong over at last Friday’s post, in which readers have been contributing alternate titles to classics, and the rest of us have been trying to guess what the classics are (I have been failing miserably). Think you know what "Fear and Loathing in Denmark" is? Or "My Beautiful Ape"? Guess the most correctly by 11:59 p.m. Thursday night, and your genius will be recognized. And if you’ve submitted a title already, either post the right answer in the comments after the deadline Thursday night, or send the answer in an email to pimpmynovel (at) gmail (dot) com—I’m seriously stumped, and want to know the answers. And now: Eric with real information.

Mysteries. Thrillers. Suspense. What's the difference?

Well, Nathan has answered this before, but in short:

• Thrillers are action-oriented;
• Suspense novels are danger-oriented, but not necessarily action-oriented;
• Mysteries, are, well... mystery-oriented, regardless of whether there's any action or danger involved. Is there a riddle to be solved? A question to be answered? &c.

Hopefully all is clear now. Next piece of business: how is this genre selling?

If you're interested in the UK fiction market—which isn't really substantially different from the US market, at least in this category—things are looking up for mystery/thriller (at least, as of last year). As you can see here (scroll down), mystery sales account for almost a quarter of all adult sales (units), so as long as your writing is solid and you've got a more-or-less original idea, you should be okay. As I've already mentioned, escapist fiction is the ideal market right now, so mystery/thriller/suspense (including all its crossovers, such as sci-fi thriller and romantic suspense) is a great place to be in 2009. And honestly, from what I hear, it's also a great place to be over the next few years, so if you're writing in this genre: carry on.

So again, with all the usual disclaimers (not legal advice, no warranties, exchanges, refunds, substitutions, &c), my guess is that romantic suspense, police/procedural thriller, mystery/thriller/suspense with female protagonist/detective, sci-fi/military thriller, and historical mystery (mayhap steampunk?) will lead the pack, although I honestly expect the rest of the sub-genres to continue to do well. Anything with sci-fi/fantasy/romance crossover (to super capitalize on the escapist/happy ending fiction theory) is, I think, a good idea (provided your book is engaging and well-written).

Now: what's the average advance?

As we saw yesterday and the day before, it's difficult to pin this sort of thing down, but from what I've observed in national account adult sales, the average advance for mystery/thriller/suspense is roughly in line with the average adult novel advance, which is to say, around $10,000 or so (in my experience, closer to $8,000). You could make as little as $1,000 on your debut novel and as much as a couple million; it all depends. Again, if you have an agent, I'd certainly ask him or her about this.

Finally, one major caveat: if your mystery/suspense/thriller is coming out this September (particularly in the second half of the month), you might be a little overshadowed. Otherwise, though, you should be fine.

Questions/comments/thoughts/vitriol/praise?