They are as follows: large print and audio books (as they currently exist) are goners.
Large print books are going to fold relatively soon simply because e-readers offer something that physical books don't and can't: resizable font. If the characters on your Kindle or Sony Reader or iPad or what have you are too small to read, you can zoom in; no such luck with a paperback. And as more and more older folks begin to adopt electronic readers, the market for paper-and-ink large print books will continue to dwindle. Eventually, everyone who used to read large print books will have either converted over to e-books or will have died, leaving only those who grew up with electronic books as the norm.
How long will this process take? Beats me, but I know that large print book sales have been on the decline for a few years now and their profit margins are shrinking. I'd be surprised if large print books are still sold by major New York publishers five years from now.
Audio books are a different animal altogether: they're not being directly threatened by e-readers like the Kindle or the Nook, but their audience is dwindling as libraries (major customers in the audio market) are closing and downward pressure on pricing in the music industry means fewer and fewer people are willing to shell out $40 or even $50 for an unabridged audio book.
In my opinion, the future of the audio book lies in the paid download (à la the iTunes store model or a subscription model like Amazon's Audible). As we move away from physical media for everything from books (Kindle, iPad, Nook) to music and movies (iTunes, Audible, Netflix's "Watch Instantly"), I think the physical, compact disc audio book is going to go the way of the dodo. Unlike the print book market, which will actually continue to thrive for awhile in the YA and children's segments (chiefly because most parents can't or won't by a $200+ device for accident-prone children to read on), audio books haven't taken hold with that demographic because its constituents either haven't bought a CD in years or are unsure as to what CDs actually are.
What do you think, gentle readers? Am I right or am I right?
I love audio books. Love them love them love them. But I the last one I bought was on cassette. Unabridged audio books on 36 CDs? Crazy. Paying $40 for an audiobook of a mass market paperback I can get for 7? Crazy. Paying $40 for a digital download? Crazier.
ReplyDeleteI really hoped ebook costs would go down with the advent of mp3s, but I use an iPod and Apple is very antagonistic toward ebooks not purchased through itunes. The last e-audiobook I bought (Dean and Me by Jerry Lewis), I had to load chapter by chapter because my ipod would play them out of sequence. And as soon as I was done, I had to delete the files to get them out of my music catalog.
There is some room for some amazing advancement in text-to-speech, creating something that doesn't sound like it's being generated by a computer, but I don't think there's enough of a market to warrant the investment (stuff they're doing for GPS units right now seems portable).
Text-to-speech is its own hot-button issue that stretches outside publishing. A lot of aspiring actors pay their rent by doing voice work.
Hi Joseph,
ReplyDeleteHave you tried Audiobook Builder when importing audio books to iTunes?
E
Hard to say -- we recently moved up into a relatively remote mountain area. Very little reliable radio reception, and folks who work in town face commutes of well over an hour each way. The people I'm meeting are all big into audio books for their drives.
ReplyDeleteI have never listened to a book, because it's too easy for my mind to wander off, triggered by a phrase in a story. I have trouble at author readings as well. But others enjoy them.
I'm hoping there will always be choices.
Whoa! That's new since the last time I had an audio book. You used to have to manually convert the file type for each file using a shareware application that I did not want to download because it was hosted on a torrent site. I may finally get to listen to all those ebooks I bought but never listened to. Rock on you, Eric.
ReplyDeleteEric -
ReplyDeleteI think you're spot-on, on both accounts. I just took a long road trip where I downloaded Cormac McCarthy's The Road to my Garmin GPS and listened to it through my car speakers. Much better than a handful of CDs to deal with.
Nice post.
- Matt
You may be right, although at least for a while, the generation who most needs the large print books will also be the most resistant to electronic readers. (Don't forget most of the readers themselves are not very friendly to some of the common elements of aging...)
ReplyDeleteAsk anybody in outside sales about audio books. When you put 50-60K miles on your car in a year you go through a lot of them. Everyone I work with can tell you every Cracker Barrel in their territory because they can rent audio books at one location and return them at another.
ReplyDeleteIf they started "renting" downloads for audio books, a la Nook's "lend me" feature or the way libraries will allow you to check out a digital book for a specified length of time, I think the market would boom. People who won't shell out $40 to own one will part with $8-$10 for a road trip. Or a subscription, something like the Netflix model, would work.
I think you're probably spot-on about audio books following the iTunes model. It's always seemed a bit silly to me for them to be put out as CDs when very few people purchase music that way. I know quite a few people who love audiobooks for long car rides or even commuting to work, but each one represents a significant investment. If audiobooks went digital, I think the market might boom. (Of course, there's likely to be some publisher hesitation about whether lowering the price will result in increased enough sales for audiobooks to still be profitable...)
ReplyDeleteAs a full time research scientist that works nearly the same hours on the side as a writer, I know I need to read, but simply can't find the time to sit down with a book unless it's research for my own writing. So audio books are a life saver for me because I can listen in the car or while I'm making dinner or doing dishes or gardening. Multitasking during dull, yet necessary activities is definitely the way to go for me. I can understand the phasing out of CDs but digital files (from companies such as Audible or iTunes) should stick around for a long time. They are not only convenient and easy to use, but the devices we use them on are small and portable and can be used anywhere. Definitely a smart choice for busy people who are constantly on the go.
ReplyDeleteOh, if there was a Netflix for audiobooks, I'd be a complete junkie. Loooooong commute here. My dad still buys large print, but sis and I are getting him a Kindle for father's day for just that reason. He loves tech toys. I'll bet he's bought his last large print.
ReplyDeleteI agree with your assessments. However, the new and used printed book market, as a lesson in history, should increase in value in the collector's market. Book shelves need to be decorated, and what better decoration to have than expensive collector's books gathering dust and fading into obscurity from the light. :)
ReplyDeleteLarge print books, I'll agree with you on. Audio books, I won't. You can't read a Kindle or iPad when you're driving. Or trying to work. I listen to books in both of those places, to have something in the back ground. I like listening to audio books when I'm driving. And when I'm at work on the computer. I know I'm not the only one. So, I'm gonna say wrong on that one. JMHO.
ReplyDeleteI love audio books and would hate to see them disappear. I always have one in the car with me. I've been making some fairly long trips and they are the best for those drives.
ReplyDeleteI always get them from the library too. I guess I could get them online. I just hope they continue to be produced.
Some of the favourite books sound better and NEED to be heard. Even Orson Scott Card agrees that the audio productions of his books are THE WAY to experience his work. Sharon Creech's Heartbeat falls into that category as well.
Hopefully good quality audio books can continue to be produced for an online audience. I wouldn't have a problem with that. I could download them but for now, I prefer borrowing them from the library.
I can see the argument as far as large print books are concerned, but I disagree about audio books. Too many people like to listen to books while driving, fixing dinner, long distance trips, and so on. And I don't think the Kindle-type text-to-voice is going to replace a really good reader, any more than digital images will replace actors in movies (sorry, James Cameron!)
ReplyDeleteHi all,
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying audio books will disappear! What I'm saying is: cars won't have CD players forever, and as we shift away from physical media, I think audio books will ultimately only survive in non-physical format(s) as well.
As always, thanks for reading!
E
It's refreshing to see a realistic reaction to ereaders, rather than the usual apocalyptic cries of "publishing is dead." These predictions sound much more reasonable - and likely.
ReplyDeleteMy mom (who bought a nook before me), was sold once I told her about the large-print feature. Afterwards, when she realized they would do audio, she was very excited. She a big consumer of audio books, and the only thing holding her back is that they are more available in physical form than on the nook. I expect that to change very shortly.
ReplyDelete